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Thursday, September 4, 2008

Back to the lab

Fairplex starts on Friday, but instead of making picks, I will use the time to catch up on research so I'm ready for Oak Tree.

Results -- Del Mar Race 10 -- lost $500

Had $500 riding on #4 She's Cheeky who finished second, but never threatened for the win as #3 Inspired Storm dominated after coming back in his second start off a long layoff.

Total bet--$500
Total net--($500)
Monthly win/loss--$3,910
Current bankroll--$62,165

3 Inspired Storm 24.40 8.00 4.40
4 She's Cheeky 3.60 3.20
12 Stuttgart 6.80

Post time odds
1 Burna Dette 16.3
2 Joint Agreement 16.1
3 Inspired Storm 11.2
4 She's Cheeky 2.2
5 Cover Girl Elle 12.6
6 Sherri Said 65.9
7 Western Engagement 33.4
8 Lil Jorae 30.6
9 Madame Striker 2.8
10 Hard Eight 10.2
11 Judy Patootie 8.9
12 Stuttgart 14.4
SCR Kathy's Garden
SCR Sweet October

Results -- Del Mar Race 9 -- won $4,410

In the Del Mar Futurity, jockey Tyler Baze found a lane on the backstretch where he kept Midshipman out of traffic trouble, although Baze was five-wide on the turn. In mid stretch, it didn't look like Midshipman would pass #4 Coronet of a Baron, but he got up in the final stride.

Midshipman was 3/1 in the morning line, but even though he had the best last race Beyer Speed Figure, his post time odds were an unbelievable 6/1. I guess bettors must think Baffert lost his touch after getting off to a slow start at the meet.

I, however, have not lost faith in Bob and bet $700 to win on Midshipman.

Total bet--$700
Total net--$4,410
Monthly win/loss--$4,410
Current bankroll--$62,665


3 Midshipman $14.60 $8.60 $5.60
4 Coronet of a Baron $8.40 $5.60
7 Street Hero $5.20

Post time odds
1 Wild Wild Posse 31.20
2 Southern Exchange 2.80
3 Midshipman 6.30
4 Coronet of a Baron 6.40
5 Kelly Leak 5.00
6 Kerwin's Way 78.50
7 Street Hero 6.00
8 Blazing Spirit 29.40
9 Mensa Heat 41.40
10 Escalon 15.90
11 Believe in Hope 4.30

Wednesday, September 3, 2008

Race 10 Del Mar -- MSW -- 6.5 Fs

Contenders--morning line

#4 She's Cheeky--7/2
#9 Madame Striker--9/2

Starting for the fifth time, #4 She's Cheeky looks like a horse that will end the Del Mar meet with a win. She's run two Beyer Speed Figures in the 80s and has the right running style for 6 1/2 furlongs.

Garrett Gomez is named to ride #9 Madame Striker, whose only start was back in December when she ran an 81 Beyer. She also has a great shot.

I will bet $500 on #4 She's Cheeky at 2/1 and over.

Race 9 Del Mar -- Del Mar Futurity -- 7Fs

Contenders--morning line

#3 Midshipman--3/1
#2 Southern Exchange--7/2

Trainer Bob Baffert has #3 Midshipman in this 11-horse field and his runner has the top Beyer Speed Figure and the best race profile. He did it all while going four paths wide in his maiden breaker. Remember, Baffert won the Del Mar Futurity seven straight times from 1996-2002, but hasn't won it since. However, he looks very strong today.

Shipping from Woodbine, #2 Southern Exchange is undefeated in three starts, but looks a little weaker than the best Midshipman can do.

Therefore, I will bet $700 on #3 Midshipman at 2/1 or better.

Results -- Del Mar -- Race 4 -- lost $200

Ended up betting just two horses -- #6 When We Met and #8 Dos and Don'ts -- at $100 each on this Aug. 24 race as I couldn't get the proper odds on many of the others.

Total bet--$200
Total net--($200)
Monthly win/loss--$3,245
Current bankroll--$58,255

1 Majormotionpicture $5.80 $4.20 $3.20
12 Empire House $4.00 $3.20
9 Massone $2.60

Post time odds
1 Majormotionpicture 1.90
2 Pemba At U. T. K. 102.70
3 Walker Rd. 74.20
4 African Diamond 28.00
5 Regal Coyote 27.40
6 When We Met 18.50
7 Restless Feet 61.90
8 Dos and Don'ts 15.30
9 Massone 3.90
10 Emperor Stone 31.90
11 Launching Pad 5.30
12 Empire House 3.30

Results -- Del Mar Race 2 -- lost $600

In this Aug. 24 race, I lost $600 on #2 Internallyflawless who kept up with Midshipman during a workout, but couldn't match him in this race. Maybe she will be better stretching out.

Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly win/loss--$3,445
Current bankroll--$58,455


5-Toro Bonito 6.80 $3.80 $3.00
9-Magic Roberta $4.60 $3.40
3 Rising Honour $4.60

Post time odds

2 Internallyflawless 4.30
3 Rising Honour 6.90
4 Red White and Brew 6.40
1 Box Office Queen 29.30
5 Toro Bonito 2.40
6 Brooke's Fantasy 54.50
7 Hot Summer Breeze 8.20
9 Magic Roberta 4.10
10 Trixianna 61.90
11 Catana Perez 29.40
12 My Special Secret 52.60
13 Emba U. T. K. 38.50
SCR Vindictive Cat
SCR Miss McCall - -

Sunday, August 24, 2008

Race 4 Del Mar -- MSW -- 2 yos -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Majormotionpicture--4/1
#4 African Diamond--12/1
#6 When We Met--12/1
#7 Restless Feet--20/1
#8 Dos and Don'ts--8/1
#10 Emporor Stone--12/1
#11 Launching Pad--6/1

Breaking out of the first post, #1 Majormotionpicture is trained by Michael Machowsky, whose last seven msw first time starters included three winners. He has good workouts.

The Eoin Harty-trained African Diamond, #4, also has a shot at a price and #11 Launching Pad is a May foal, but clockers say he looks tremendous during morning workouts.

I will bet $300 on #1 Majormotion picture at 7/2 or better, $200 on #4 African Diamond at 10/1 to 19/1 and $100 on any of these at 10/1 to 19/1: #3 Walker Rd., #6 When We Met, #7 Restless Feet, #8 Dos and Don'ts, #10 Emperor Stone and #11 Launching Pad.

Race 2 Del Mar -- MSW -- 2 yo -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line

#2 Internallyflawless--7/2
#4 Red White and Brew--9/2
#1 Box Office Queen--15/1
#7 Hot Summer Breeze--8/1
#11 Cantana Perez--20/1
#12 My Special Secret--20/1

Jumping off the page in this race is #2 Internallyflawless out of the Bob Baffert barn. This Giant's Causeway-filly, who could eventually be a stakes winner, worked with Midshipman on Aug. 10 and kept up with him well, according to Today's Racing Digest. Midshipman ran a 91 Beyer Speed Figure last week in winning a maiden race for 2-year-old colts and, since the average winning Beyer for fillies is only 75, Internallyflawless only needs to run about an 85 to be guaranteed to whip these.

At the right price, #11 Catana Perez and #12 My Special Secret could also be good bets.

In this race, I will bet $400 on #2 Internallyflawless at 2/1, $500 on her at 5/2 or 3/1, and $600 at 7/2 or greater. Also, I will wager $150 on both #11 Catana Perez and #12 My Special Secret at less than 20/1 only; and $100 on any of these if they are between 10/1 and 19/1: #1 Box Office Queen, #6 Brooke's Fantasy, #7 Hot Summer Breeze, #10 Trixianna and #1a Vindictive Cat.

Sunday, August 17, 2008

Results Race 6 Del Mar -- won $1,985

On the turn, #1 Street Hero, who the public bet to 4/5, made a huge move up the rail, but #9 Midshipman rallied four wide and ran him down in the stretch. The winner, a first-time starter, was 11/1 and is certainly a welcome relief for trainer Bob Baffert, who had only one win from 31 starters at the meet.

I bet $200 on Midshipman and a total of $375 on two other horses.

Total bet--$575
Total net--$1,985
Monthly win/loss--$4,045
Current bankroll--$59,055


9 Midshipman------$25.60 $7.60 $5.20
1 Street Hero------------$2.80 $2.40
6 Oyster Cat-------------------$3.40

Post time odds

1 Street Hero 0.90
2 Invisible Edge 61.80
3 Launch the Bull 5.00
4 Raikkonen 18.90
5 Nochangenweather 6.50
6 Oyster Cat 5.00
7 Smokey Dehere 49.50
8 Fitzmo 22.40
9 Midshipman 11.80
SCR - Reggae Revolution

Race 6 Del Mar -- MSW -- 2 yo -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Street Hero--5/2
#2 Invisible Edge--20/1
#3 Launch the Bull--7/2
#4 Raikkonen--5/1
#5 Nochangenweather--8/1
#6 Oyster Cat--5/1
#7 Smokey Dehere--30/1
#8 Fitzmo--10/1
#9 Midshipman--8/1
#10 Reggae Revolution--20/1

Obvious horses in this race include #1 Street Hero and #5 Nochangenweather who ran third and fourth, separated by just a nose, on June 29. Either can win at a short price.

But seven first timers will also walk into the starting gate and a few show promise. According to clockers, #8 Fitzmo and #4 Raikkonen have been working out well and several have money-making angles going for them. For example, the trainer of #4 Raikkonen is 3 of 7 with first timers in races like this and bettors got back $4.18 for every $1 bet.

I will bet $200 on #2 Invisible Edge at 10/1 to 19/1, $175 on #4 Raikkonen at 7/2 to 19/1 and $200 on #6 Oyster Cat at 7/2 to 19/1. Also, I want $100 on #8 Fitzmo at 10/1 to 19/1, and $200 on #9 Midshipman at 7/2 to 19/1.

Results Del Mar Race 8 -- lost $750

Had a five-horse set going for me in this race, but none of them could get the job done.

Total bet--$750
Total net--($750)
Monthly win/loss--$2,060
Current bankroll--$57,070


5 Coastal Souvenir------$9.20 $5.00 $4.00
9 One More Week---------------$9.80 $5.80
2 Tom Quinn-------------------------$8.40

Post time odds

1 Pemba At U. T. K. 73.20
2 Tom Quinn 15.00
3 Speaking 13.20
4 Warren's Tony R. 55.20
5 Coastal Souvenir 3.60
6 Brave Justice 2.70
7 Reel Popular 66.70
8 J B Wine 3.10
9 One More Week 9.10
10 Rockin Zola 10.80
11 Thunderfrmdownundr 29.40
12 Armenian Nose 14.30
SCR - Got Alot Going

Thursday, August 7, 2008

Race 8 Del Mar -- MDN40K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Pemba At U.T.K.--20/1
#2 Tom Quinn--8/1
#3 Speaking--8/1
#5 Coastal Souvenir--5/1
#6 Brave Justice--7/2
#7 Reel Popular--20/1
#8 J B Wine--9/2
#9 One More Week--10/1
#10 Rockin Zola--6/1
#11 Thunderfrmdownundr--12/1
#12 Armenian Nose--20/1
#13 Got Alot Going--4/1

Of the 13 runners entered, six of them are first-time starters. I like when the trainer is also the owner, which is the case with #7 Reel Popular. Trainer Paula Capestro is listed as 0-for-17 with first timers in the Daily Racing Form, but this horse will be a good bet from 7/2 to 19/1. According to my records, of 53 trainer-owners in this type of race, there were 10 winners and bettors got back $1.56 for every $1 wagered. Also, Rick Taylor is listed as the breeder and when he ran Golden Eagle Farm they were adept at winning first time.

More than half of these races are won by a horse on the lead at the half mile pole. Of the horses who ran, #3 Speaking shows the best early foot.

Trainer Clifford Sise has a runner owned by Martin Wygod, #9 One More Week, and those connections usually win either first time or second time out.

The average winning Beyer Speed Figure for this race is 67 and #6 Brave Justice ran a 66 on July 17.

I will bet $250 to win on #9 One More Week at 5/1 or more, $200 on #7 Reel Popular at less than 20/1 -- and $50 if 20/1 or greater -- $200 on #3 Speaking at 5/1 or more, $150 on Tom Quinn at 8/1 or better, and $100 on any of these horses with post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1: #1 Pemba at U.T.K., #2 Tom Quinn, #11 Thunderfrmdownundr and #12 Armenian Nose.

Wednesday, August 6, 2008

Results Del Mar Race 3 -- lost $950

Second-time starter Brinson woke up and ran a great race while #1 Little Dude, for some reason, went to the lead for the first time in his life. That might have been a good strategy if the race was at 6 furlongs or less, but he should have laid off the pace a length or two at 6 1/2 furlongs. He led until 100 yards from the wire then stopped.

I ended up betting $600 on #1 Little Dude, $200 on #7 Mystification and $150 on #3 Dark Hawk.

Total bet--$950
Total net--($950)
Monthly win/loss--$2,810
Current bankroll--$57,820


2 Brinson------$57.60 $18.60 $9.20
6 Son of Pegasus-------$3.60 $2.80
4 Benny's Benchmark----------$5.60

Post time odds

1 Little Dude 3.40
2 Brinson 27.80
3 Dark Hawk 8.60
4 Benny's Benchmark 8.40
5 Fast Vole 48.10
6 Son of Pegasus 1.30
7 Mystification 8.10
8 Athenry 5.20

Monday, August 4, 2008

Race 3 Del Mar -- MDN32k -- 6.5FS

Contenders--morning line

#1 Little Dude--3/1
#3 Dark Hawk--8/1
#4 Benny's Benchmark--6/1
#6 Son of Pegasus--5/2
#7 Mystification--6/1
#8 Athenry--7/2

Runners #6 Son of Pegasus and #4 Benny's Benchmark have last race Beyer Speed Figures that are 72 and 70 respectively, so they will jump off the page and people should bet them to underlays. But the 63 Beyer that #1 Little Dude ran on the grass last time should keep money off him and if he runs back to the 76 he ran at 6F on April 26 then he'll be tough to beat.

Also, #7 Mystification, who is making his second lifetime start, broke slowly but came on strong at 5 1/2 furlongs on July 11. He looks like an OK bet today.

Finally, first-time starter #3 Dark Hawk is trained by Peter Eurton who is two-for-three when he sends first starters into maiden claiming sprints for older horses. One winner was 10/1 and the other was a 9/1 shot.

I will bet $600 on #1 Little Dude if he's at least 2/1. Also, if #3 Dark Hawk is between 5/1 and 15/1 I will bet $150 on him and if #7 Mystification is 5/1 or more I want $200 to win.

Sunday, August 3, 2008

Race 10 Del Mar -- No action

None of the four horses I was looking at went off at proper betting odds, so I didn't bet anything. However, one of them won and paid 7/5.


9 Chanjo------$4.80 $3.20 $2.40
4 Red Door Drive----$7.00 $4.80
6 Union Dancer------------$3.80

Post time odds

1 Youthful Ambition 4.00
2 Probation Please 10.40
3 Tootuffforthedevil 58.40
4 Red Door Drive 8.80
5 Moambe 56.00
6 Union Dancer 5.30
7 Dancing Wildfire 13.00
8 Magna Cum Laude 11.80
9 Chanjo 1.40
10 Royal Albert 17.30

Results Del Mar Race 7 -- won $2,090

I ended up with seven runners going for me in this contentious 12-horse race, as many went off at odds between 5/1 and 19/1. However, I weighted the bets toward the first-time starters between 10/1 and 19/1 and fortunately the one that popped -- #3 Believe in Hope -- was one of my two $250 bets.

I also had $250 on #11 Payment Approved and $200 on #2 Launch the Bull, #6 Fiery Rebel, #8 Meteore and #12 El Chubasco. And that wasn't enough, so I had to take a $150 flier on 48-1 short Crazy Cash. After betting $1,460, I collected $3,550, which was just like betting one 3/2 shot.

Total bet--$1,460
Total net--$2,090
Monthly win/loss--$3,760
Current bankroll--$58,770


3 Believe In Hope------$28.40 $13.80 $9.40
7 Gold Aly---------------------$9.40 $5.60
6 Fiery Rebel------------------------$4.00

Post time odds

2 Launch the Bull 12.40
3 Believe in Hope 13.20
4 Azooz 40.90
1 Gato Go Win 4.00
5 Crazy Cash 48.90
6 Fiery Rebel 5.90
7 Gold Aly 7.90
8 Meteore 8.90
9 Snapshot 2.70
10 Regal Coyote 51.50
11 Payment Approved 16.80
12 El Chubasco 8.90
SCR - Oyster Cat
SCR - Arashi Cat

Results Del Mar race 5--lost $250

Only horse of the three possibilities who fell into the 5/2 to 7/1 odds range was #4 Dollar Mountain, who ran well but didn't have another gear for the stretch.

Total bet--$250
Total net--($250)
Monthly win/loss--$1,670
Current bankroll--$56,680


5 Ginobili------$12.20 $6.20 $3.80
4 Dollar Mountain------$5.40 $3.60
3 Holy Thunder---------------$3.80

Post time odds

1 Valentine Gift 31.50
2 Benjy's Pride 39.10
3 Holy Thunder 3.90
4 Dollar Mountain 5.40
5 Ginobili 5.10
6 Must Be Joking 12.80
7 Educated Risk 11.10
8 Turn to the King 11.80 5
9 Rumba Along 1.60

Results Race 2 Del Mar -- lost $600

Bet a total of $600 on a speed horse and two others that I considered overlays. But none of them fired.

Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly win/loss--$1,920
Current bankroll--$56,930


3 Afleet's Design------$7.00 $3.40 $2.80
9 Anatolian Gold-------------$4.00 $3.00
5 Highly Unusual-------------------$3.20

Post time odds

1 Mark of a Pirate 30.10
2 Runinfromthedeputy 19.60
3 Afleet's Design J 2.50
4 Sur Brio 6.80
5 Highly Unusual 3.90
6 Royal Gold Cat 80.90
8 Phantom North 32.30
9 Anatolian Gold 2.60
10 Black Magic 23.00
11 Searing 105.00
12 Theforcebwithdixie 77.80
13 Bein Breezy 7.50
SCR - Seenosmoke
SCR - Storm Central

Saturday, August 2, 2008

Race 10 Del Mar -- MSW -- 1 1/16 Turf

Contenders--morning line

#1 Youthful Ambition--6/1
#8 Magna Cum Laude--12/1
#9 Chanjo--2/1
#10 Royal Albert--12/1

Three of these horses are coming off recent long layoffs and #1 Youthful Ambition is owned by B. Wayne Hughes, who does well with second-time starters.

I will bet $150 on Youthful Ambition at 5/1 or more and $250 on any of these three horses at 5/2 to 7/1: #8 Magna Cum Laude, #9 Chanjo and #10 Royal Albert.

Race 7 Del Mar -- MSW -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#2 Launch the Bull--10/1
#3 Believe in Hope--12/1
#4 Azooz--20/1
#1 Gato Go Win--6/1
#5 Crazy Cash--20/1
#6 Fiery Rebel--6/1
#8 Meteore--9/2
#9 Snapshot--7/2
#10 Regal Coyote--20/1
#11 Payment Approved--15/1
#12 El Chubasco--6/1
#13 Oyster Cat--3/1

This 13-horse field has 10 first-time starters and many of them have winning profiles. Over the past few years, I found success spreading out my bets in these races and gambling that a big price shows up. The best bets in races like these have post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1, so that's what I focus on.

If any of these horses are 10/1 to 19/1, I'll bet $250 on them: #3 Believe in Hope, #8 Meteore, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat. Also, I'll bet $200 on #2 Launch the Bull, #4 Azooz and #9 Snapshot, only at 10/1 to 19/1.

If those horses don't fall into the higher odds range, then I will bet $200 on the following horses if they are 5/1 to 9/1: #2 Launch the Bull, #3 Believe in Hope, #6 Fiery Rebel, #8 Meteore, #9 Snapshot, #10 Regal Coyote, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat.

Finally, I've seen Everest Stables win at 50/1 in the past, so I want $100 on #5 Crazy Cash at 15/1 or more.

Maybe I'll lose all my bets in this race. Maybe I'll hit a 6/1 shot that won't do much more than break me even. But I'm gambling for a payoff of $22 to $38, and if that happens, then I'll do well.

Race 5 Del Mar -- MSW -- 1 1/16 Turf

Contenders--morning line

#4 Dollar Mountain--4/1
#7 Educated Risk--15/1
#8 Turn to the King--8/1

On any of these three horses, who have recently had long layoffs, I will bet $250 if their post time odds are 5/2 to 7/1.

Race 2 Del Mar -- MDN25K -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Mark of a Pirate--20/1
#3 Afleet's Design--3/1
#5 Highly Unusual--5/1
#7 Storm Central--4/1
#8 Phantom North--20/1
#9 Anatolian Gold--9/2

Large 14-horse field should produce a good payoff in the win pool. Although #5 Highly Unusual has a big pace advantage in this race, I am keeping an open mind and will bet some of the best overlays.

I will bet $300 on #5 Highly Unusual and #7 Storm Central, both only at 3/1 or more.

Also, I'll wager $200 on #3 Afleet's Design at 7/1 or better and #9 Anatolian Gold at 5/1 or more.

I'll bet $150 to win if the post time odds on #1 Mark of a Pirate are at least 8/1 and the same amount on #8 Phantom North at 20/1 or more.

Friday, August 1, 2008

Results Del Mar Race 5 -- won $3,420

Coming into the race, Rafael Bejarano was three-for-three when riding first-time starters for trainer Doug O'Neill and he didn't disappoint Friday, booting home #5 Escalon at 13/1.

I bet $300 on Escalon among the five horses I backed for a total betting bill of $1,050.

Total bet--$1,050
Total net--$3,420
Monthly win/loss--$2,520
Current bankroll--$57,530


5 Escalon------$29.80 $13.00 $6.20
2 Tudor Blue----------$10.20 $6.40
9 Teamwork-------------------$3.60

Post time odds

1 Johnny Be Bad 16.80
2 Tudor Blue 8.20
3 Cookin Expresso 6.70
4 All Saint 48.30
5 Escalon 13.90
6 Tap Tap I Win 11.10
7 Pinstripe Kid 1.50
8 Cold Surf 11.60
9 Teamwork 3.10

Results Del Mar Race 3 -- lost $900

Spread $900 over three horses, but was beaten by low-priced contender #3 The Bat Signal. The winner had run #6 Mr. Rod into the ground on July 13, and was hoping that the rival might turn the tables.

Tommy Town Thoroughbreds first-timer #1 Star Redeemer ran well at 16/1, however Bob Baffert's #2 Yonkers Joe did not.

Total bet--$900
Total net--($900)
Monthly win/loss--($900)
Current bankroll--$54,110

3 The Bat Signal------$6.60 $3.80 $2.60
1 Star Redeemer-------------$13.80 $5.60
6 Beau Gris-----------------------$3.40

Post time odds

1 Star Redeemer 16.00
2 Yonkers Joe 5.70
3 The Bat Signal 2.30
5 Beau Gris 2.60
6 Mr. Rod 3.50
7 Nascar Johnny 6.80
8 Genki 17.80
SCR - African Diamond

Race 5 Del Mar -- MSW -- 6 Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Johnny Be Bad--8/1
#3 Cookin Expresso--4/1
#4 All Saint--20/1
#5 Escalon--8/1
#6 Tap Tap I Win--10/1
#8 Cold Surf--8/1
#9 Teamwork12/1

I intentionally left favorites #2 Tudor Blue and #7 Pinstripe Kid off the contender's list because I think they are two horses to definately bet against. Of the six first timers, #5 Escalon looks interesting as Rafael Bejarano is 3-for-3 when riding first starters for Doug O'Neill. The colt is also an early foal that is shipping from another circuit--both good angles.

Second time starter #3 Cookin Expresso looked like the July 2 race was for practice as jockey Migliore didn't appear to be trying too hard at 5/1. Today, Garrett Gomez rides.

I will bet $300 on #5 Escalon and $200 on #1 Johnny Be Bad at 7/2 to 19/1; $150 on both #8 Cold Surf and #4 All Saint at 7/2 to 19/1; $200 on #9 Teamwork at 6/1 or better and $150 on #6 Tap Tap I Win at 10/1 to 19/1. Also, if #3 Cookin Expresso is 7/2 or more, I will bet $250 on him.

Race 3 Del Mar -- MDN80K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Star Redeemer--8/1
#2 Yonkers Joe--4/1
#3 The Bat Signal--3/1
#4 African Diamond--10/1
#6 Mr. Rod--7/2

On July 13, #3 The Bat Signal blasted out of the gate and dueled with #6 Mr. Rod. Both have legitimate early speed for this class and should be out in front again. Three first-time starters are in this race, with the best of them being Tommy Town Thoroughbred's #1 Star Redeemer and #2 Yonkers Joe, who is trained by Bob Baffert.

I will bet $250 on #1 Star Redeemer if 7/1 or more; $400 on #2 Yonkers Joe if less than 10/1, but only $150 if greater than 10/1; and $250 on either #3 The Bat Signal or #6 Mr. Rod, if they are 3/1 or greater. If both are 3/1 or more than I will take the longer of the two.

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Results Race 8 Del Mar -- won $1,010

In sprints for 2-year-olds at 6 furlongs or less, I always prefer the first-time starters to a well-bet favorite that has run before. In this race, #9 Catalina Fog was bet to 6/5 and almost hung on for the win, but 6/1 shot #8 It's Gotta Be Us rolled by him in late stretch. I had $200 on the winner, $200 on #4 Cach D Fish and $150 on #11 Chief Poniso.

Another note about this race, #4 Cach D Fish swerved at the beginning, rushed up on the backstretch and was blocked all the way to the wire. He was probably the best horse in the race, but had nowhere to go. Check it out on the replay (he's breaking from the 3 hole) and be sure to view the head on.

Total bet--$550
Total net--$1,010
Monthly win/loss--$3,310
Current bankroll--$55,010


8 It's Gotta Be Us------$15.60 $6.40 $3.80
9 Catalina Fog-----------------$3.00 $2.60
2 Tahoe Kid--------------------------$4.40

Post time odds

2 Tahoe Kid 8.50
3 She Made Me Do It 39.20
4 Cach D Fish 4.00
5 Warren's Hotrod 28.80
6 Simply 48.50
7 He's a Handful 8.70
8 It's Gotta Be Us 6.80
9 Catalina Fog 1.30
10 Milwaukee Rocket 9.80
11 Chief Poniso 18.40
SCR - I Want My Money

Results Del Mar Race 3 -- no action

Horses coming off layoffs in maiden turf routes are a profitable bet at times and I was waiting for #2 Cheryl's Surprise to come into the 5/2 to 7/1 range. But she went off at 10/1 then led the whole way.

I sat out and had no action.


2 Cheryl's Surprise------$22.80 $8.40 $6.00
5 Alley Theater-----------------$10.00 $6.40
1 Love to Siphon-----------------------$3.20

Post time odds
1 Love to Siphon 2.50
2 Cheryl's Surprise 10.40
3 Usk Melody 30.90
4 Mohaka 7.40
5 Alley Theater 11.00
6 Keilly Belle 17.50
7 Ditto This 35.30
8 Humor Her Along 9.90
9 Sunny Peace 5.80
10 Precious Union 2.80

Results Del Mar Race 2 -- won $720

Brite Ruler had a huge pace advantage over these horses. Jockey Rosario eased him to the lead and won comfortably while in front throughout.

I wrote that I would bet $300 on either #2 Brite Ruler or #7 Sunshine In whoever was the higher price, as long at they were at least 2/1. Sunshine In was pounded to 6/5, so it became an easy decision as Brite Ruler was double the price at nearly 5/2.

Total bet--$300
Total net--$720
Monthly win/loss--$2,300
Current bankroll--$54,000


2 Brite Ruler------$6.80 $3.80 $3.00
1 Toppler----------------$5.80 $4.20
6 Warren's Cat Time------------$7.00

Post time odds

1 Toppler 5.60
2 Brite Ruler 2.40
3 Crown of Splendor 21.60
4 Verypq 13.30
5 Big Red Bean 35.70
6 Warren's Cat Time 18.40
7 Sunshine In 1.10
8 No Laughing Matter 10.10

Race 8 Del Mar -- MDN32K -- 5.5FS

Contenders--morning line

#2 Tahoe Kid--6/1
#3 She Made Me Do It--15/1
#4 Catch D Fish--6/1
#6 Simply--20/1
#8 It's Gotta Be Us-8/1
#9 Catalina Fog--2/1
#11 Chief Poniso--8/1

This 10-horse field includes six first-time starters and, although I wouldn't be too surprised to see #9 Catalina Fog win, I will try to beat the 2/1 favorite with the new blood.

Not many of these first starters have good workouts, but #4 Catch D Fish is the exception and therefore I will bet him at 7/2 to 19/1. Another that looks promising is #8 It's Gotta Be Us, who is an early foal. Also, trainer Doug O'Neill is 7/35, or 20 percent, when his 2-year-olds are starting first time in a maiden claiming race. Every $1 bet has returned $1.51 on this O'Neill angle.

On the site, I will bet $200 on #8 It's Gotta Be Us at 5/1 to 19/1, and $200 on #4 Catch D Fish at 7/2 to 19/1. Also, if the following horses are 10/1 to 19/1 then I will bet $150 on them: #2 Tahoe Kid, #3 She Made Me Do It, #6 Simply, #11 Chief Poniso.

Race 3 Del Mar -- MSW -- 1 1/16 turf

Contenders--morning line

#2 Cheryl's Surprise--8/1
#3 Usk Melody--15/1

These two horses are not necessarily the only contenders, but they are the only horses I will consider betting in this race. A great value in these races are horses coming off layoffs, but the price must be right.

I will bet $200 on #2 Cheryl's Surprise and #3 Usk Melody only if they are 5/2 to 7/1.

Race 2 Del Mar -- MDN25K -- 6.5FS

Contenders--morning line

#2 Brite Ruler--5/2
#7 Sunshine In--8/5

This looks like a two horse race with #2 Brite Ruler having all the speed and #7 Sunshine In possessing the best Beyer Speed Figures and closing kick. Brite Ruler is coming out of the same extremely fast June 21 race as A Lil Dumaani, who won a 40K maiden race on Monday.

Brite Ruler also stalked the fast pace on June 21 and weakened to finish just 2 1/2 lengths behind A Lil Dumaani.

The challenge here will be to get 2/1 on either #2 Brite Ruler or #7 Sunshine In. If either of them do go off at 2/1 or better, then I will bet $300 on that horse. And if somehow both are 2/1 or more then I will bet that amount on the longer of the two.

Tuesday, July 29, 2008

Results Race 2 -- Del Mar -- lost $500

Halo's Clean Sheet, #1, looked like the better bet when compared with #2 Flashing Forward, but she swerved left at the break and was quickly 10 lengths behind the others. Halo's Clean Sheet did well to be involved in a photo for second. My other bet, the Carla Gaines-trained second timer #6 Stuttgart, broke in the middle of the pack and never threatened.

Total bet--$500
Total net--($500)
Monthly bankroll--$1,580
Current bankroll--$53,280


7 Rare Ribbon------$6.80 $3.20 $2.40
2 Flashing Forward--------$3.00 $2.40
1 Halo's Clean Sheet-----------$2.60

Post time odds

1 Halo's Clean Sheet 3.30
2 Flashing Forward 2.00
3 Saint's Crown 12.40
5 My Lucky Stars 10.60
6 Stuttgart 4.80
7 Rare Ribbon 2.40
SCR - It'sallinthegenes

Results Race 5 Del Mar -- won $1,320

A Lil Dumaani, #3, ran a few lengths off the pace then surged to the lead in the stretch and won without a fight. Because the Barry Abrams-trained horse Hy Temp was scratched, the only bet I had was for $400 on the winner.

Total bet--$400
Total net--$1,320
Monthly bankroll--$2,080
Current bankroll--$53,780


3 A Lil Dumaani----------$8.60 $5.00 $3.20
1 Camo-------------------------$6.40 $4.20
7 I Am Game--------------------------$3.00

Post time odds

1 Camo 5.00
2 Coolerator 8.30
3 A Lil Dumaani 3.30
4 One Hot Storm 13.90
5 Patriate 30.40
6 Tigley 2.90
7 I Am Game 3.00
9 Warrington 11.20
SCR - Hy Temp

Monday, July 28, 2008

Race 2 Del Mar -- MDN50K -- 6.5FS

Contenders--morning line

#1 Halo's Clean Sheet--3/1
#2 Flashing Forward--5/2
#3 Saint's Crown--5/1
#6 Stuttgart--5/1

Breaking from the rail, #1 Halo's Clean Sheet fits the profile of the type of horses that win 6 1/2 and 7 furlong races, and #2 Flashing Forward would also fit the profile if she didn't go three-to-four paths wide on the turn June 22.

The Jack Carava-trained #3 Saints Crown is running back for the second time off a 17-month layoff and she has positive betting angles at 2/1 to 4/1. Second-time starter #6 Stuttgart was checked at the break last time, in what might have been a practice race, but she moved well when asked to run. Gaines wins at a high percentage when her horses are making their second lifetime start and this one is adding blinkers.

I will bet $300 on whoever is longer between #1 Halo's Clean Sheet and #2 Flashing Forward. If #3 Saint's Crown is between 2/1 and 4/1, then I will bet $250 on her, but if not, I will bet $200 on #6 Stuttgart.

Race 5 Del Mar -- MDN40K -- 6FS

Contenders--morning line

#1 Camo--6/1
#3 A Lil Dumaani--9/2
#5 Patriate--12/1
#8 Hy Temp--6/1
#7 I Am Game--7/2

In his June 21 race, #3 A Lil Dumaani posted an extremely fast second quarter mile while chasing a loose on the lead winner. He looks like he'll be close to the lead today and stands a good chance for the win.

The Barry Abrams-trained #8 Hy Temp was blocked in the stretched while trying to rally on the turf back in October 2007. He's been off since then, but this is the type of horse the public doesn't like to bet and they win more than their fair share.

In fact, horses like Hy Temp are 21/68 for 31 percent with $1 returning $1.75, while the trainer is 2/4 with maiden layoff types. Also, a horse that fit the angle won the last race on Sunday, paying $11.60.

I will wager $400 on #3 A Lil Dumaani and $300 on #8 Hy Temp, both at odds of at least 2/1.

Results Race 10 Del Mar -- lost $750

I put $750 on #11 Stag on the Run, but he was never in the race. The favorite, #9 Lotacat, made an OK move on the outside, but never threatened for the win. I needed at least 2/1 on him for a bet, however he went off at 3/2.

Total bet--$750
Total net--($750)
Monthly bankroll--$760
Current bankroll--$52,460


1 Gold Star Status---------$49.00 $21.80 $8.60
13 Tizsong----------------------- $7.00 $4.20
9 Lotacat--------------------------------$2.40

Post time odds

1 Gold Star Status 23.50
4 Sir Carson 26.60
5 Woodman's Hope 19.00
6 Beau's Message 40.20
7 Peace Prospect 11.10
8 Texas Devil 7.10
9 Lotacat 1.50
10 Thunder Alliance 39.80
11 Stag On the Run 4.30
12 Norco Pal 13.10
13 Tizsong 5.50
SCR - Geauxforthedeaux
SCR - Crown of Splendor
SCR - Cat Report

Results Del Mar Race 7 -- lost $200

Although Baffert first-time starter #11 Pick to Click didn't run at all, early speed horses #9 Charlie's Moment and #1 Empire House both ran huge at big odds. Charlie's Moment nosed favorite #2 Street Hero on the wire, but I did not bet him because his odds eased over the range in the final minute.

I lost $200 on #11 Pick to Click.

Total bet--$200
Total net--($200)
Monthly bankroll--$1,510
Current bankroll--$53,210


9 Charlie's Moment--------$44.20 $18.40 $13.00
2 Street Hero--------------------$5.00 $4.00
1 Empire House--------------------------$19.60

Post time odds

1 Empire House 41.30
2 Street Hero 2.90
3 Fassnacht 10.70
4 Kerwin's Way 55.10
5 Only Be Cause 44.40
6 Speight the Halo 1.50
7 Chocolate Candy 9.40
8 Luckiest Man 38.60
9 Charlie's Moment 21.10
10 Massone 6.50
11 Pick to Click 13.50
12 Say It Again 61.00

Saturday, July 26, 2008

Race 10 Del Mar -- MDN25K -- 6.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#3 Geauxforthedeaux--9/2
#9 Lotacat-7/2
#11 Stag On the Run--5/1

The speed of the race is #11 Stag On the Run, but I think he'll have a tough time holding off the late charge of #9 Lotacat, who has run a few races that would win this thing.

I will put $1,000 on #9 Lotacat at 2/1 or more and $750 on #11 Stag On the Run.

Race 7 Del Mar -- MSW -- 6Fs

Contenders--morning line
#1 Empire House--20/1
#6 Speight the Halo--2/1
#8 Luckiest Man--20/1
#9 Charlie's Moment--15/1
#10 Massone--6/1
#11 Pick to Click--12/1

Speed horses #1 Empire House and #9 Charlie's Moment are worth a token wager at high odds. The best bet in here is #11 Pick to Click, a Bob Baffert-trained first time starter. He's an early foal and has had four good workouts. Good angles on this horse from 7/2 up to 19/1.

I will bet $300 on #11 Pick to Click from 3/1 to 9/1, but only $200 on him at 10/1 to 19/1. Also, I will put $150 on #8 Luckiest Man if he falls into the 10/1 to 19/1 odds range. Finally, I will take $50 to win on #1 Empire House if less than 20/1 and the same on #9 Charlie's Moment at 20/1 or less.

Friday, July 25, 2008

Results Del Mar Race 5 -- lost $250

The odds on four of the first-time starters I was looking at did not fall into my bettable range of 10/1 to 19/1. After #4 Jet Set Lass was scratched, I only wagered on #2 Alex B. Good and that $250 was lost when she didn't run well.

Total bet--$250
Total net--($250)
Monthly bankroll--$1,710
Current bankroll--$53,410


3 Tammy's Luck----------$18.80 $7.00 $4.60
7 Victory Dancer-------------- $3.00 $2.40
6 One Perfect Karat------------------$4.00

Post time odds

1 Chilliwack 6.40
2 Alex B. Good 27.40
3 Tammy's Luck 8.40
6 One Perfect Karat 6.70
7 Victory Dancer 1.10
8 Keep Active 4.40
9 Rusalka 9.60
11 Boehle 59.00
12 Costa Marta 34.50
SCR - #5 Princess Suances
SCR - #10 No Due Diligence
SCR - #4 Jet Set Lass

Results Del Mar Race 3 -- won $1,010

Trainer Clifford Sise had Dashwood ready to roll as the 2-year-old colt came out of the gate running and hung on by an neck. Of the other four first-time starters that I was considering, only #7 Mickey Rocks went off between 10/1 and 19/1 and speedball Sherry's Reddy, #4, was scratched. So that left me with a $200 bet on #5 Dashwood and $150 to win on #7 Mickey Rocks.

Total bet--$350
Total net--$1,010
Monthly bankroll--$1,960
Current bankroll--$53,660


5 Dashwood-----------$13.60 $5.20 $3.80
2 Got Alot Going------------$3.20 $2.60
10 Aquicksting--------------------$5.00

Post time odds

1 Uintah 21.60
2 Got Alot Going 1.80
3 Rochelle's Jimmy 33.60
5 Dashwood 5.80
6 Celestial Topper 7.20
7 Mickey Rocks 18.40
8 Kitty Caliente 2.20
9 Warrens Mr Boswell 30.40
10 Aquicksting 9.90
SCR - Sherry's Reddy

Race 5 Del Mar -- MSW -- 5.5Fs

Contenders-morning line

#1 Chilliwack--9/2
#2 Alex B. Good--10/1
#3 Tammy's Luck--10/1
#4 Jet Set Lass--12/1
#6 One Perfect Karat--6/1
#7 Victory Dancer--5/2
#8 Keep Active--6/1
#11 Boehle--20/1
#12 Costa Marta--12/1

In this race, second-time starter #2 Alex B. Good showed excellent speed on June 29 and is bettable. The best wager of the five first-time starters in the race is #12 Costa Marta who is an early foal being trained by Marty Jones.

I'll bet $250 on #2 Alex B. Good at 3/1 or more and $300 on #12 Costa Marta only if 10/1 to 19/1. Also, I'll bet $100 on any of these horses only if they fall into the 10/1 to 19/1 range: #4 Jet Set Lass, #6 One Perfect Karat, #8 Keep Active and #11 Boehle.

Race 3 Del Mar -- MDN40K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#1 Uintah--20/1
#2 Got Alot Going--9/2
#3 Rochelle's Jimmy--15/1
#4 Sherry's Reddy--5/1
#5 Dashwood--5/1
#6 Celestial Topper--5/1
#7 Mickey Rocks--10/1

Five first-time starters are going in here and none of them look like particularly strong bets, but one may win at a good price nevertheless.

Martin Wygod owns #5 Dashwood and he's trained by probably the cagiest trainer on the grounds in Clifford Sise, who can work them out slow and run them fast. Wygod likes to win second time, but if this first-timer is 5/1 or more he's probably worth a small wager.

The quickest of the horses who have run looks like #4 Sherry's Reddy, who I'll bet at 3/1 or more.

I'll bet $150 to win on the following horses only if they fall into the 10/1 to 19/1 range: #1 Uintah, #3 Rochelle's Jimmy, #6 Celestial Topper, and #7 Mickey Rocks. Also, I'll put $200 on #5 Dashwood at 5/1 or more and $200 on #4 Sherry's Reddy at 3/1 or greater.

Sunday, July 20, 2008

Results Race 9 Del Mar -- won $4,700

This was a case of two horses who had very similar pace ratings. But #2 Elusive Destiny was 6/5 because he had 73 and 75 Beyer numbers earned in 6.5 furlong races, while #3 Special Grey Ghost form was a bit hidden as he ran Beyers of 65 and 68 in 6F and 5.5F races while presssing the pace in his most recent and coming from the back in his third race back.

The plan was to bet $1,000 on whoever was longer and #3 Special Grey Ghost got the nod.

Total bet--$1,000
Total net--$4,700
Monthly bankroll--$950
Current bankroll--$52,650


3 Special Grey Ghost------$11.40 $5.60 $4.00
10 Quite the Man-----------------$5.80 $4.40
5 Benny's Benchmark--------------------$9.80

Post time odds

1 Limited Profit 15.00
2 Elusive Destiny 1.10
3 Special Grey Ghost 4.70
5 Benny's Benchmark 32.60
6 Looking At You 31.50
7 Baby Gotham 7.30
8 Brinson 44.50
9 Happy Prayer 8.90
10 Quite the Man 4.90
SCR - Cadeaux du Monde

Results Race 4 Del Mar -- lost $600

Surprisingly, I ended up betting only two horses in this race because three of the first timers that I liked drifted above the 20/1 betting zone. In the end, I put $350 on #9 Kinesiology and $250 on #7 Lippy Rules, who was in contention until the top of the stretch.

Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly bankroll--($3,750)
Current bankroll--$47,950


1 Turtle Creek Babe-------$16.80 $7.00 $4.00
2 Stardom Bound------------------$6.20 $3.40
10 Montana Fields----------------------$2.60

Post time odds

1 Turtle Creek Babe 7.40
2 Stardom Bound 4.30
3 Rising Honour 32.50
4 Oro Blanco 9
5 Irish Gypsy 3.90
6 Bujumbura 32.10
7 Lippy Rules 7.90
8 Madeline Ruby 43.60
9 Kinesiology 16.50
10 Montana Fields 1.40

Result Race 3 Del Mar -- lost $1,600

Legend of My Own, trained by Jeff Mullins, was one of my main choices based on the good race he ran last time while encountering trouble. I also played #8 Major Smoke because his odds were slightly better than #9 Draft Choice's were.

Anyway, #5 One Chin Again was too good for any of them today.

Total bet--$1,600
Total net--($1,600)
Monthly bankroll--($3,150)
Current bankroll--$48.550


5 One Chin Again--------$12.40 $5.40 $3.20
9 Draft Choice-----------------$4.00 $2.80
8 Major Smoke------------------------$2.60

Post time odds

1 Victory Joe 9.60
2 Cole Rocks 9.20
3 Rollin n' Tumblin 41.00
4 Michael's Notes 10.70
5 One Chin Again 5.20
6 Justice Reigns 31.20
7 Legend of My Own 4.90
8 Major Smoke 3.00
9 Draft Choice 2.60

Results Race 1 Del Mar -- no action

After two of #9 Russian Liquor's main contenders -- #3 Son of Dionisi and #4 Sin City Glow -- were scratched, Russian Liquor had a walk in the park. The only problem was he was bet to 7/5 so I ended up having no action.


9 Russian Liquor---------$4.80 $3.40 $2.40
5 Malydar----------------------$8.60 $4.00
7 Athenry----------------------------$2.20

Post time odds

1 Built for Thederby 32.70
2 Nasty Gent 10.40
5 Malydar 13.10
6 Tri City Dan 34.80
7 Athenry 1.40
8 Bay Zing 5.70
9 Russian Liquor 1.40
SCR Sincity Glow
SCR Son of Dionisi

Race 9 Del Mar -- MDN 25K -- 7Fs

Contenders--morning line

#2 Elusive Destiny--2/1
#3 Special Grey Ghost--3/1

Either of these two horses looks good, but going by the morning line the prices are low.

I'll bet $1,000 on the longer price of the two between #2 Elusive Destiny and #3 Special Grey Ghost as long as they are 2/1 or more.

Race 4 Del Mar -- 5.5Fs -- MSW

Contenders--morning line

#2 Stardom Bound--3/1
#3 Rising Honour--12/1
#4 Oro Blanco--20/1
#5 Irish Gypsy--4/1
#6 Bujumbura--12/1
#7 Lippy Rules--5/1
#8 Madeline Ruby--20/1
#9 Kinesiology--12/1
#10 Montana Fields--7/2

Seven first time starters go in this one and am going to have to play the board. I like these horses at 7/2 to 19/1 -- #2 Stardom Bound, #3 Rising Honour, #9 Kinesiology, #10 Montana Fields. These are good from 10/1 to 19/1 #4 Oro Blanco, #6 Bujumbura and #8 Madeline Ruby. Bob Baffert's second timer #5 Irish Gypsy might win and spoil the party, but I have to bet against her because there is too much opportunity in this race for a big price. The speed of the horses who have run before appears to be #7 Lippy Rules.

I will put $350 on #9 Kinesiology at 10/1-19/1 and $200 #6 Bujumbura and #8 Madeline Ruby if they are 10/1 to 19/1. Any other first timer that is 10/1 to 19/1, I will bet $150 on. If I only have three plays in that range or fewer then I'll put $250 on #7 Lippy Rules, at 5/1, but if she's less than that I'll forget about Lippy Rules and bet $300 on the longest of the first timers who are less than 10/1 among #2, #3, #9 and #10.

Race 3 Del Mar -- MSW -- 6.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#5 One Chin Again--7/2
#7 Legend of My Own--6/1
#8 Major Smoke--4/1
#9 Draft Choice--5/2

The speed of the race is #5 One Chin Again, who I am hoping is challenged by one of the four first-time starters in the race. On the outside, #9 Draft Choice and #8 Major Smoke can win if they run back to their last races, but they have had five tries so far.

The Jeff Mullins-trained #7 Legend of My Own lost five lengths on the turn in his last when he got shuffled back, but still came on to run a 76 Beyer.

I am betting $600 on #7 Legend of My Own at 5/2 or more and $1,000 on whoever is the longer price between #8 Major Smoke and #9 Draft Choice.

Race 1 Del Mar -- MDN 25K -- 7Fs -- 3+

Contenders--morning line

#3 Son of Dionisi--4/1
#4 Sin City Glow--9/2
#9 Russian Liquor--7/2
#7 Athenry--5/2

If #4 Sin City Glow can run back to its April 30 route, three races back, he can win. The best speed in the race is #9 Russian Liquor, who also has shown good stamina. A great angle play for layoff horses belongs to #3 Son of Dionisi. Horses like him are 21/68 or 31 percent and bettors make $1.80 for every dollar bet.

Finally, Athenry looks OK, but I prefer the others especially if Athenry is favored.

My bets here are $1,000 to win on #3 Son of Dionisi and $600 on #9 Russian Liquor, both at 2/1 or more.

Results Race 5 Del Mar -- no action

Selected #5 Absolutely Smitten and #6 Shesalittlepistol and they finished first and second, but I couldn't bet either of them because they did not have the proper odds. When you don't win it doesn't mean that you lose, but it feels that way today.


6 Shesalittlepistol----------$11.80 $6.00 $4.40
5 Absolutely Smitten----------------$5.60 $4.40
9 Dumaani Came Home-----------------------$6.00

Post time odds

1 Warren's Cookie 4.00
2 Best of Wishes 8.10
3 Dice Afare 2.50
4 Wantha 43.80
5 Absolutely Smitten 4.50
6 Shesalittlepistol 4.90
7 Continental Dancer 47.30
8 It's Time to Shine 6.10
9 Dumaani Came Home 14.90

Saturday, July 19, 2008

Race 5 Del Mar -- MDN 25K - 6F - 3+

Contenders--morning line

#1 Warren's Cookie--5/1
#2 Best of Wishes--9/2
#3 Dice Afare--3/1
#5 Absolutely Smitten--7/2
#6 Shesalittlepistol--4/1
#8 It's Time to Shine--8/1

The speed of the race looks like #5 Absolutely Smitten with #3 Dice Afare a length or two slower, but I would only bet #5 at 5/1 or more.

Just outside of her, #6 Shesalittlepistol is running her third race back from a long layoff and this angle is good as long as she is 2/1 to 7/2. The second timers #2 Best of Wishes and #8 It's Time to Shine, could be anything and are better bets if they are getting some action. From the #3 post, Dice Afare has the best jockey and trainer Vladimr Cerin does well with older maiden claimers.

My bets for this race are $200 to win on Absolutely Smitten at 5/1 or more; $300 on #6 Shesalittlepistol at 2/1 to 7/2.

Thursday, July 17, 2008

Results Race 5 Del Mar -- lost $150

Second-time starter #1 Miguel's Mascot hugged the rail while pressing the pace and ran away from the field. On the far turn, #12 Tactful made a bold move that he couldn't sustain and earlier in the race #10 Rockin Zola showed good speed.

Only one of my potential wagers went off at bettable post time odds.I Wanna Get Away, #11, needed to be at least 10/1 but was only 7/1 while I needed 5/2 on #12 Tactful, who was the 2/1 favorite.

For the race, I ended up losing $150 on #5 Highway Sixty Six.


1 Miguel's Mascot---------$8.40 $4.40 $3.00
6 Pinstripe Kid----------------$10.20 $5.20
12 Tactful----------------------------$3.00

Post Time Odds

1 Miguel's Mascot 3.20
3 Donthaveatizzy 12.00
4 The Unusual One 6.60
5 High Way Sixty Six 8.50
6 Pinstripe Kid 13.30
7 Fil's Regent 11.70
10 Rockin Zola 17.00
11 I Wanna Getaway 7.60
12 Tactful 2.10
SCR - Mendota Bay
SCR - Papoose La Moose
SCR - All Saint

Wednesday, July 16, 2008

Race 5 - Del Mar -- MSW -- 5.5fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#2 All Saint--20/1
#3 Donthaveatizzy--8/1
#5 High Way Sixty Six--8/1
#11 I Wanna Getaway--12/1
#12 Tactful--4/1

Four of the horses in this race ran together on July 2 and #5 High Way Sixty Six flashed the best speed on that day. Since nobody else distinguished themselves, I'll bet #5 at 5/1 or more.

The first-time starters in this race, of which there are five, don't jump off the page, but one of them might win. All Saint, #2, has some good workouts and is worth a small bet at 7/2 to 19/1, but he's 20/1 on the morning line. The Hector Palma-trained #3 Donthaveatizzy is OK at 10/1 to 19/1, but #10 Rockin Zola looks like his odds will be out of the 20/1 range. That brings me to #11 I Wanna Getaway, who looks like an excellent bet today. Tommy Town Thoroughbreds, the owners, are 5/33 or 15 percent with first time starters and a win bet on all would have netted $1.80 for every dollar bet. Today's rider Enriquez has won on four of them with prices paying 13/1, 16/1, 5/2 and 15/1.

Finally, Harris Farms-owned #12 Tactful will be running first time out for trainer Carla Gaines. He has Garrett Gomez, who I have at 7/30-23 percent-1.48 on first timers between 2/1 and less than 10/1. All 14 of Gaines first timers have been bet to less than 10/1, but only one of them won, however four finished second.

On the site, I will bet $150 on #5 High Way Sixty Six at 5/1 or more, $200 on #11 I Wanna Getaway at 10/1 or more, but only $50 on him if he drifts to 20/1 or greater. Also, I'll take $200 on #12 Tactful at 5/2 or better.

Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Getting ready for Del Mar

The Southern California circuit moves from Los Angeles to San Diego on July 16 and until then I will be catching up on record keeping. Therefore, I won't be handicapping any races, but I'll be back for opening day at Del Mar.

Sunday, July 6, 2008

Results Race 11 Hollywood -- lost $200

The #2 Hopehopehope won on her second start off a long layoff, but her price was a little out of the odds zone so I didn't bet her. I ended up with $200 to win on #5 Cheryl's Surprise who made a middle move before flattening out.

Total bet--$200
Total net--($200)
Monthly bankroll--($1,400)
Current bankroll--$50,300


2 Hopehopehope-------$21.80 $8.40 $5.60
8 Love to Siphon-----------$12.80 $5.20
9 Surprises Welcomed--------------$3.00

Post Time Odds

1 Alley Theater 3.20
2 Hopehopehope 9.90
3 Usk Melody 23.50
4 Kiamika 59.40
5 Cheryl's Surprise 5.40
6 Dawn Star Rising 7.80
8 Love to Siphon 10.90
9 Surprises Welcomed 1.80
10 Shake It Off 9.20
SCR - Wicked Delight

Results Race 6 Hollywood -- lost $600

Kept waiting for a big run to come from #4 Crash Landing, but it never happened. He went off at a good price and was in the perfect position the whole way, sitting behind four dueling leaders. First-time starter Hannahs Classy Boy led the whole way on the rail. I bet $500 on #4 and another $100 on #10.

Total bet--$600
Total net--($600)
Monthly bankroll--($1,200)
Total bankroll--$50,500


1 Hannahs Classy Boy------$10.00 $5.40 $3.80
8 One Chin Again---------------- $5.60 $3.60
10 Ribald------------------------------$3.00

Post Time Odds

1 Hannahs Classy Boy 4.00
2 Buck's Bro 18.40
4 Crash Landing 3.10
5 Exclusive Facts 58.50
7 Seamus 5.60
8 One Chin Again 4.70
9 Special Grey Ghost 11.90
10 Ribald 2.60
SCR - Saygoodnightgeorge
SCR - Everynow and Then

Friday, July 4, 2008

Saturday-Race 11 Hollywood Park -MSW 3yos+ 1 1/6 miles on turf

I don't usually handicap turf races, but I do have layoff information for horses going a route on turf so I concentrate only on that specific angle.

I will be watching the tote board to see if any of these four horses are bet below 7/1: #2 Hopehopehope, #3 Usk Melody, #4 Kiamika, and #5 Cheryl's Surprise. Going by the morning line, only one of them, #5 Cheryl's Surprise, looks like a possible bet. But if any of them fall between 5/2 and 7/1 then I will wager $200 to win on those horses.

Saturday-Race 6 Hollywood Park - MSW, 3+ - 6Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#4 Crash Landing--5/2
#10 Ribald--7/2

This ten-horse race has six first-time starters, but two of the experienced horses had tough trips recently and one or the other will probably win today. Crash Landing, #4, was checked sharply by the jockey at the break to lose five lengths on June 8, but still ran a 78. At 6 furlongs, a five length loss is equal to 12 Beyer points, so Crash Landing could run a 90 or better, which would win most of these races, considering the average winning Beyer Speed Figure is 86 for these horses. Also, the connections are switching to jockey Bejarano.

Trained by Art Sherman, #10 Ribald, also lost five lengths at the start in a May 9 race, but ran an 81. He was bet to 6/5 in his next race, but the jockey took him four paths wide the whole way while running a 76. Today, I believe he can also run in the low 90s off his best.

Because these two horses are strong, one of the first timers will have to run huge to beat them and I'm betting that they don't. The #8 One Chin Again finished third in the $250,000 Snow Chief Stakes, but that was a route race and he has never run better than a 76 Beyer in seven tries.

Because of the post, Bejarano, and the fact that I've had a lot of luck with the owner Harris Farms, I'm betting $500 on #4 Crash Landing at 2/1 or more, and $100 on #10 Ribald at 5/2 or better. If Crash Landing is less than 2/1, I'll forget about him and wager $200 on Ribald at 5/2 or better.

Results Race 2 Hollywood -- won $650

Jockey Campos hustled #3 Salah Mrs. D from the gate to the lead and she held off a threat by #2 My Sister Laureen in the stretch.

I probably should have only bet this horse at 2/1 or more, but I was rushed and didn't add any odds requirements to the wager. So much can happen in a horse race to beat you that I'll ring up this $650 victory without feeling an ounce of guilt.

Total bet--$500
Total net--$650
Monthly bankroll--($600)
Total bankroll--$51,100

3 Salah Mrs. D.------$4.60 $3.00 $2.40
2 My Sister Laureen--------$4.20 $3.00
8 Promise Rose-------------------$4.40

Post time odds

1 Heavenly n' Free 18.20
2 My Sister Laureen 4.40
3 Salah Mrs. D 1.30
4 Dixie Dot Chance 25.50
5 Summersgoldengirl 12.00
8 Promise Rose 7.40
9 Improvising Gal 2.50
SCR - December Sky
SCR - Lucky Mite

Race 2 Hollywood -- MDN 40K, 3+ -- 5.5Fs

Didn't have much time to look at the horses today, although there are many good races. But one horse jumps off the page and she is #3 Salah Mrs. D. Although she hasn't run in a year, she's dropping in class, is trained by 22-percent handler Mike Mitchell and has some speed.

Other layoff horse who look like her won 27 out of 79 races or 34 percent and bettors would have won $1.79 for every $1 wagered if they bet them all. Therefore, I will take $500 to win on her.

Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Results Race 8 Hollywood -- lost $500

The Craig Dollase-trained first timer Lidstrom, #8, was bet down to 8/5 before he pressed the pace, took the lead at the top of the stretch and eased away. Coming in, Dollase was 4/7 when his first time starter were between 2/1 and 7/2, but 0/2 when less than 2/1. Bettors would be losing 32 cents on the dollar if they bet all 50 first time starters less than 2/1 since November 2006, as only 30 percent, or 15 of them won.

Lidstrom won today, but he was a bad bet. Although, some people would rather take a short price than have a long face, I am not one of them.

Instead I lost $100 on #7 The Unusual One, and $200 each on #3 Capital Cat and #1A Miguel's Mascot.

Total bet--$500
Total net--($500)
Monthly bankroll--($1,250)
Current bankroll--$50,450


8 Lidstrom------$5.20 $3.20 $2.80
1A Miguel's Mascot----$5.40 $3.80
6 Highway Sixty Six --------$10.60

Post Time Odds

3 Capital Cat 11.80
4 Speaking 7.50
5 Tudor Blue 10.90 5
6 High Way Sixty Six 37.20
7 The Unusual One 15.00
8 Lidstrom 1.60
9 Number One Edition 11.90
1A Miguel's Mascot 5.10
10 Cookin Expresso 5.40
11 Pinstripe Kid 54.60
12 Warrens Mr Boswell 61.50
SCR - The Bat Signal
SCR - Off Kilter

Results Race 6 Hollywood -- lost $650

Unbelievably, Jack Van Berg did it again. Last week Van Berg saddled Cold Prince to a win at 9/2 in a 7F maiden claimer where he was rated with the best finishing kick. Today, #4 Our Anastacia's pace rankings looked very similar to Cold Prince's, but Jack had only won five of 116 races for the year. So certainly he couldn't win again. But his horse nailed #6 Enchanting Moment a few jumps from the wire and my $400 bet on her went down the drain. I also bet $250 on #8 Halo's Clean Sheet, who finished third.

Total bet--$650
Total net--($650)
Monthly bankroll--($750)
Current bankroll--$50,950


4 Our Anastacia------$21.00 $8.20 $4.60
6 Enchanting Moment---------$3.80 $2.60
8 Halo's Clean Sheet--------------$2.80

Post Time Odds

1 Crooked Smile 8.60
2 Fool's Paradise 58.90
3 Love Song Mellody 65.80
4 Our Anastacia 9.50
5 Ata Dynaformer 40.00
6 Enchanting Moment 2.70
7 Deo Favente 4.30
8 Halo's Clean Sheet 2.50
9 Love and War 7.30
10 Padach 12.70

Results Race 3 Hollywood -- lost $100

Stormy Inferno, #6, blasted to the lead and won easily. She was only 2/1 and needed to be 5/2 for my $200 bet. First-time starters #4 Kitty Kat Queen and #10 Daniella Roth also were out of the betting zone. So the only bet I made was $100 to win on #8 Lovely Lolly.

Total bet -- $100
Total net -- ($100)
Monthly bankroll -- ($100)
Current bankroll -- $51,600


6 Stormy Inferno------$6.20 $4.00 $3.00
11 Closing Steps------------$5.40 $3.80
7 Lady Schnapps-------------------$3.20

Post Time odds

3 Royal Orchid 22.30
4 Kitty Kat Queen 34.00
5 Octoberfest 9.10
6 Stormy Inferno 2.10
7 Lady Schnapps 3.90
8 Lovely Lolly 15.40
10 Daniella Roth 20.60
11 Closing Steps 4.10
12 Monica's Edge 34.80
14 Sprig of Acacia 40.30
15 Sweet Yvett 6.00
SCR - Shootinforthestarz
SCR - Yasmin's Songh
SCR - Dixie Hawks
SCR - Spark of Love

Race 8 Hollywood Park -- MSW -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#3 Capital Cat--6/1
#5 Tudor Blue--6/1
#6 High Way Sixty Six--20/1
#7 The Unusual One--15/1
#8 Lindstrom--5/2
#1a Miguel's Mascot--9/2
#10 Cookin Expresso--6/1
#11 Pinstripe Kid--20/1
#12 Warrens Mr Boswell--20/1

The speed of the horses who have run looks like #3 Capital Cat, who is shipping down from Golden Gate.

Seven first time starters are running. Craig Dollase trains #8 Lidstrom and he is 4/7 with first timers between 2/1 and 7/2.

I will bet $100 on these horses if they are 10/1 to 19/1 -- #7 The Unusual One and #10 Cookin Expresso, and $200 to win on #1 Miguel's Mascot and #3 Capital Cat at greater than 7/2.

Race 6 Hollywood Park -- 40K, 3yo+, 6.5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#4 Our Anastacia--12/1
#6 Enchanting Moment--5/2
#7 Deo Favente--4/1
#8 Halo's Clean Sheet--7/2

Horses who come from a bit off the pace usually do well in this type of race. Enchanting Moment, #6, is dropping from maiden special weight and has the right running style to win. Also, early speed horse #8 Halo's Clean Sheet may get an easy lead and appears to have good stamina.

Second-time starter #7 Deo Favente didn't run too well in her debut and might improve dramatically, but I can't bet either her or any of the three first-time starters. Trainer Jack Van Berg sadles #4 Our Anastacia, who picked up good ground in the stretch last time and might win, but I will let that horse beat me. Van Berg won with Cold Prince, a similar horse on Thursday.

Bobby Frankel trains #9 Love and War who couldn't win a grass route race in three maiden special weight tries. If he runs big, then I lose.

Therefore, my web site bets are $400 to win on #6 Enchanting Moment and $250 to win on #8 Halo's Clean Sheet, both at 2/1 or more.

Race 3 Hollywood -- 2yos -- 40K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders -- Morning Line

#4 Kitty Kat Queen--20/1
#6 Stormy Inferno--3/1
#7 Lady Schnapps--9/2
#8 Lovely Lolly--12/1
#10 Daniella Roth--6/1
#11 Closing Steps--5/1
#14 Sprig of Acacia--12/1

Seven of 11 of these runners are making their second lifetime start and three are going for the first time. Several of these horses ran with no early speed and no rally last time. I quickly threw out #3 Royal Orchid, #5 Octoberfest and #12 Monica's Edge because they will need dramatic improvement that I can't predict.

Three fillies flashed the type of early speed last time that can get them to the lead today. Stormy Inferno, #6, might be the quickest as that filly was four wide on the turn while showing speed versus maiden special weights. Also, #14 Sprig of Acacia is expected to be fast early and #7 Lady Schnapps won't be far behind.

Trainer John Sadler has #11 Closing Steps who was 70/1 last time and doesn't look like much in the racing form. But she's dropping from maiden special weight and will likely win the race if the first timers don't run and the speed is weak.

Of the first-time starters, #8 Lovely Lolly is owned by Meadowbrook Farms, which has won with three of their last 10 first timers. That horse and the other firsters -- #4Kitty Kat Queen and #10 Daniella Roth -- are decent bets only at 10/1 to 19/1.

On the site, I will bet $200 on #6 Stormy Inferno at 5/2 or more, and $100 to win on #4 Kitty Kat Queen, #8 Lovely Lolly and #10 Daniella Roth, only between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1.

If the first timers do not fall into the odds range and I can't bet them, then I will also bet $200 on #11 Closing Steps at 9/2 or more.

Monday, June 30, 2008

Results Race 9 Hollywood -- won $2,580

At the top of the stretch, #7 S.S. Stone was being squeezed between #4 Say It Again and #10 Del Conte, but jockey Rafael Bejarano found space and rallied up the rail to nail #12 Speight the Halo. I bet $200 on S.S. Stone at 13/1 and because #6 Street Hero went off at less than 7/2, I had no wager on him. I also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather at 6/1.

Total bet--$400
Total net--$2,580
Monthly bankroll--$1,700
Total bankroll--$51,700


7 S.S. Stone--------$29.80 $10.80 $5.40
12 Speight the Halo---------$6.80 $5.40
6 Street Hero---------------------$5.00

Post time odds

1 Massone--2.70
3 Freedom Ride--41.80
4 Say It Again--67.40
5 Genki--40.30
6 Street Hero--3.30
7 S. S. Stone--13.90
9 Loyal Son--6.80
10 Del Conte--6.30
11 Nochangenweather--6.60
12 Speight the Halo--5.00
SCR - Captain Steel
SCR - Day With Desi

Results Race 6 Hollywood -- won $1,200

Dropping into maiden claiming for the first time, #5 Ace High Hand showed his class by going to the lead early and never giving it up. I bet $500 on him at 5/2 and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry at 18/1. Another one of my picks, #7 Rare Chant, was scratched.

Total bet--$550
Total net--$1,200
Monthly Bankroll--($880)
Current Bankroll--$49,120


5 Ace High Hand---$7.00 $4.20 $3.00
3 Lunch Time------------$13.40 $5.80
1 Bigum------------------------$3.00

Post time odds

1 Bigum--2.00
2 Larrylarrylarry--18.20
3 Lunch Time--15.40
4 Gold Star Status--27.40
5 Ace High Hand--2.50
6 Officer M. D.--11.30
8 Eminent Honor--73.20
9 Anatolian Gold--5.00
10 Geauxforthedeaux--5.10
SCR - Rare Chant

Results Race 4 Hollywood -- lost $700

None of the first time starters ran early with Stormy Game so he breezed to an easy lead and had plenty left in the tank for the stretch. I lost $400 on #7 Warrington at 7/2 and $300 on #2 Son of Dionisi at 4/1.

Total bet--$700
Total net--($700)
Monthly bankroll--($2,080)
Total bankroll--$47,920


8 Stormy Game----$6.80 $3.80 $2.80
4 Warren's Moonkross---$3.00 $2.10
7 Warrington-----------------$2.60

Post time odds

2 Son of Dionisi--4.00
3 Sur Brio--20.30
4 Warren's Moonkross--2.00
5 Highly Unusual--38.20
6 Bay Zing--13.70
7 Warrington--3.50
8 Stormy Game--2.40
SCR - Mort Robbins

Sunday, June 29, 2008

Race 9 Hollywood -- MSW -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#1 Massone--9/2
#6 Street Hero--12/1
#7 S.S. Stone--6/1
#9 Loyal Son--10/1
#10 Del Conte--8/1
#11 Nochangenweather--5/1
#12 Speight the Halo--4/1

The early speed in here is #11 Nochangenweather who led for the first half of his last race before tiring to lose by 3. The owners paid $400,000 for this colt who was bet to 7/2 versus nine others in his debut and 4/1 also in a field of 10 in his second race. Should have the early lead, which is important in these races and 5/1 would be a good price. The Ron McAnally-trained Massone, #1, looked strong closing well once he got untracked in his debut.

Second-time starters trained by Richard Matlow and Bob Baffert always have to be considered. They are sending out #9 Loyal Son and #10 Del Conte respectively and either could dramatically improve to win this race.

Of the first timers running, the angles supporting #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone are stronger than those backing #5 Genki and #12 Speight the Halo. Any of them would be OK from 10/1 to 19/1, but I would bet much less on numbers 5 and 12.

On the site, I will bet $200 to win on numbers #6 Street Hero and #7 S.S. Stone at 7/2 to 19/1. I will also bet $200 on #11 Nochangenweather if he's 5/1 or more. If not, then I'll bet $100 on #9 Loyal Son and $100 on #10 Del Conte, provided they are each 8/1 or greater.

Race 6 Hollywood Park -- MDN $40K -- 7Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#1 Bigum--7/2
#2 Larrylarrylarry--20/1
#5 Ace High Hand--5/2
#7 Rare Chant--10/1

Although coming out of a route race, #7 Rare Chant is the dominant speed. Trained by Rafael Becerra, he's running his fourth race back from a long layoff and has been showing speed in routes on both the main track and grass course. He looks like he could win at a good price.

Both #1 Bigum and #5 Ace High Hand have the right profile for this race. Ace High Hand ran six previous times in Maiden Special Weight races where he was bet to 3/1 or less five times. In his last race, jockey Mike Smith breezed him in the stretch while running a 71 so you can throw that race out. It's his third race back from a long layoff, so Ace High Hand might be sitting on a big one.

Ridden by Garrett Gomez, #1 Bigum is taking his 18th shot at maidens. However, in his last nine races he's run Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to high seventies and ran an 81 in his last.

The Jerry Fanning-trained Larrylarrylarry, #2, could surprise as it looked like the jockey merely breezed him in his debut after being bet to 7/1 and working out well leading up to the race. At 20/1, he might be worth a few bucks.

I will bet $500 on Ace High Hand at 2/1 or more. But if he's bet to 9/5 or less I'll forget Ace High Hand and put $300 on Bigum instead at 5/2 or higher. Also, I'm putting $250 on #7 Rare Chant and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry.

Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 40K -- 6.5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#2 Son of Dionisi--4/1
#4 Warren's Moonkross--3/1
#7 Warrington--5/1
#8 Stormy Game--5/2

Unless one of the three first-time starters runs with #8 Stormy Game, he figures to get an easy lead without serious pressure developing until they reach the half mile. That's when #2 Son of Dionisi and #7 Warrington should be making their moves. In the stretch, #4 Warren's Moonkross has the best late run.

On June 8, #2 Son of Dionisi made a decent move on the turn while four paths wide. On that day, trainer Gary Mandella was brining him off a 16-month layoff so he probably wasn't at his best. This horse has promise because he ran an 81 Beyer Speed Figures in his debut, which is the best in this field.

On May 9, #7 Warrington showed decent early speed while running with a field of Maiden Special Weights, then was not asked in the stretch while running a 67 Beyer Speed Figure. I think he can run the 82 necessary to win this race.

Finally, #4 Warren's Moonkross was catching the leaders in the stretch last time when he lost by 3 lengths.

On the site, I will play $400 to win on the #7 Warrington at 3/1 or more and $300 on whoever goes off at a longer price between #2 Son of Dionisi and #4 Warren's Moonkross.

Friday, June 27, 2008

Results Race 8 Hollywood -- lost $800

Bet an army of first timers, but none of them fired. Ten Churros only ran for half of the race in his debut, but put it all together on Thursday. I am sure owner/handicapper Bruno DeJulio keyed him in the Pick 6, which had a $700,000 carryover. I bet $200 on #5 Yoursmynanours, #6 Paradisi and #7 Grace Gryder. Also had $100 on #4 Ammarie and #9 Sagebrush Angel.

Total bet--$800
Total net--($800)
Monthly bankroll--($1380)


3 Ten Churros-----$6.40 $3.80 $2.60
14 O Goodday----------- $4.80 $3.00
11 Chatty LuLu----------------$2.80

Post time odds

1 Miss Reyna--26.10
2 Can Can Girl--16.90
3 Ten Churros--2.20
4 Ammarie--19.20
5 Yoursmynanours--14.50
6 Paradisi--6.80
7 Grace Gryder--18.30
9 Sagebrush Angel--19.90
11 Chatty Lulu--3.60
14 0 Goodday--3.40
SCR Soup Deeohdouble
SCR Shootinforthestarz
SCR Bajan Kitty
SCR Lovely Lolly
SCR Monica's Edge

Results Race 4 Hollywood -- lost $1,000

Wagered $650 on #5 Vanaldi and #350 on #1 Warren's Jack V., who were both beaten by late-runner #3 Cold Prince.

Total bet--$1,000
Total net--($1,000)
Monthly bankroll--($580)


3 Cold Prince----$11.20 $4.40 $2.80
1 Warren's Jack V.------$4.40 $3.00
5 Vanaldi---------------------$2.40

Post time odds

1 Warren's Jack V.--3.70
2 Bean Who--40.60
3 Cold Prince--4.60
4 Heywatchulookingat--32.00
5 Vanaldi--2.10
8 Black Magic--14.50
9 Deputy Prize--4.50
10 Quiet Revolution--4.70
SCR - Holy Mystery
SCR - Strong Suggestion

Thursday, June 26, 2008

Race 8 Hollywood -- MDN 40K -- 5Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#1 Miss Reyna--20/1
#3 Ten Churros--2/1
#4 Ammarie--20/1
#5 Yoursmyunanours--12/1
#6 Paradisi--8/1
#7 Grace Gryder--10/1
#9 Sagebrush Angel--10/1
#11 Chatty LuLu--6/1
#14 Goodday--10/1

Of the ten horses entering the gate, seven are running for the first time. Several contenders are listed because in a race like this I use betting ranges to determine whether to wager or not on a particular first time starter. If the horse drifts past 20/1, I never bet. So at post time, only a handful of horses will be bettable.

Fillies first timers who are betting possibilities between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1 include #1 Miss Reyna, #4 Ammarie, #7 Grace Gryder, #9 Sagebrush Angel and #14 Goodday. At odds of 3/1 to 19/1, #5 Yoursmynanours is a bet and #6 Paradisi.

Of the horse who have run, second-time starter #3 Ten Churros showed speed in his last but the jockey merely jogged him in the stretch. Owned by workout analyst Bruno De Julio and trained by Jeff Mullins, this one could win at a short price, but I would not bet at less than 3/1.

For the site, since there are so many options here and decisions must be made at post time, I will bet $200 to win on #'s 5, 6, 7 and $100 to win on #'s 1, 4 and 9 provided they fall into the odds ranges.

Race 4 Hollywood -- MDN 25K - 7Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#1 Warren's Jack V.--5/1
#5 Vanaldi--5/2

Median winning Beyer Speed Figure - 74

Both of these horses have shown speed in some races and in others they have run from off the pace with staying power.

In this type of race, horses from off the pace do well unless there is dominant speed in the race. The only horse I can see going wire to wire is #5 Vanaldi. He did not get a chance to run in his last as jockey Michael Baze had him restrained during the first part of the race and he was blocked behind horses throughout the whole stretch run. Draw a line through that one on your racing form. Today, trainer Mike Puype switched to leading rider Rafael Bejarano.

One of the first time starters might surprise, but I cannot bet them. Either #1 Warren's Jack V. or #5 Vanaldi should have the late kick necessary to win, so I will bet them both at 2/1 or more.

On the website, my bets are $650 to win on #5 Vanaldi and $350 to win on #1 Warren's Jack V, both only at 2/1 or more.

Results Race 8 Hollywood -- won $420

Betting Results -- wagered $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby, $100 win on #6 Susan's Wildcat, $50 win on #6 Veranda Cafe and $50 win on #8 Evita Argentina.

Total bet--$600
Total collected--$1,020
Net win--$420
Monthly net--$420
Bankroll -- $50,420

8 Evita Argentina 40.80 15.60 7.40
7 Candilejas 4.00 2.80
1 Lippy Rules 3.00

Post Time odds

1 Lippy Rules 2.20
2 Winningdancer 46.50
3 Mad for Candy 64.10
4 Veranda Cafe 6.60
5 Sorry Baby 6.20
6 Susan's Wildcat 15.60
7 Candilejas 2.20
8 Evita Argentina 19.40
10 Brewha Baby 5.60
SCR - Stormy Gigi
SCR - Stardom Bound

Wednesday, June 25, 2008

Race 8 Hollywood MSW -- 2yo -- 5Fs

Contenders------Morning Line

#1 Lippy Rules--3/1
#2 Winning Dancer--20/1
#3 Mad For Candy--20/1
#4 Veranda Cafe--6/1
#5 Sorry Baby----8/1
#6 Susan's Wildcat--15/1
#7 Candilejas--7/2
#8 Evita Argentina--15/1
#10 Brewha Baby--4/1

I am keeping an open mind and playing the odds board as seven of nine of these horses are first-time starters. Lippy Rules got the lead in her first race, but is sure to be an underlay with a 77 Beyer Speed Figure staring everybody in the face. Trainer Jeff Mullins sadles #7 Candilejas who hopped at the beginning of her only start then went 5-wide before finishing second in a 10-horse field at Keeneland. She also figures to be bet too low.

However, Bob Baffert's #5 Sorry Baby, a first-time starter, has strong angles going for it, especially from 7/2 to 9/1. I will spilt my bet between win and place at 10/1 or more. Also, #6 Susan's Wildcat is the type of horse that is a good bet between 7/2 and 19/1.

Listed with odds rangers are other wagering possibilities, which I would bet less on: #2 Winning Dancer at 10/1-19/1, #3 Mad for Candy at 10/1-19/1, #4 Veranda Cafe at 7/2-15/1, #8 Evita Argentina at 7/2 to 19/1 and #10 Brewha Baby at 7/2 to 19/1.

On the website, I will bet $400 win on #5 Sorry Baby if she stays below 10/1, but if she drifts above then $100 win and $100 place. Also, I will bet $100 to win on #6 Susan's Wildcat if she's 7/2 to 19/1. Of these horses, #4, #8, #10, I will bet $50 to win on the two longest prices that are less than 20/1.

Monday, June 23, 2008

Results Race 9 Hollywood

9 Wendoffer 6.80 4.20 3.00
8 Victory Dancer 7.40 4.80
10 Steal My Charm 11.00

Sunday, June 22, 2008

Race 9 -- Hollywood -- MSW -- 5Fs


#2 Tammy's Luck
#4 Mischabel
#7 Chilliwack
#8 Victory Dancer
#9 Wendoffer

Many of these 2-year-old sprints are won by the horse who gets the early lead. On May 21, Mischabel and Wendoffer dueled with Mischabel caving in at the top of the stretch. Either of the two look like they will be ahead after a quarter mile, but Chilliwack could take over after a half mile.

Since none of those three have dominant speed, a good bet is #8 Victory Dancer. The Bob Baffert-trained filly has been working out well and records show that Bob is an excellent play with this type of horse. The Richard Matlow first timer #2 Tammy's Luck also has been strong in the morning and is an OK bet at 7/2 or better.

My plan is to play #8 Victory Dancer at 5/2 or more, but to reduce my bet if she is 10/1 or better. Depending on what Victory Dancer goes off at, I will choose a back-up horse among the remaining contenders based on their odds. I am leaning toward Tammy's Luck and Chilliwack.