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Sunday, June 29, 2008

Race 6 Hollywood Park -- MDN $40K -- 7Fs

Contenders--Morning Line

#1 Bigum--7/2
#2 Larrylarrylarry--20/1
#5 Ace High Hand--5/2
#7 Rare Chant--10/1

Although coming out of a route race, #7 Rare Chant is the dominant speed. Trained by Rafael Becerra, he's running his fourth race back from a long layoff and has been showing speed in routes on both the main track and grass course. He looks like he could win at a good price.

Both #1 Bigum and #5 Ace High Hand have the right profile for this race. Ace High Hand ran six previous times in Maiden Special Weight races where he was bet to 3/1 or less five times. In his last race, jockey Mike Smith breezed him in the stretch while running a 71 so you can throw that race out. It's his third race back from a long layoff, so Ace High Hand might be sitting on a big one.

Ridden by Garrett Gomez, #1 Bigum is taking his 18th shot at maidens. However, in his last nine races he's run Beyer Speed Figures in the mid to high seventies and ran an 81 in his last.

The Jerry Fanning-trained Larrylarrylarry, #2, could surprise as it looked like the jockey merely breezed him in his debut after being bet to 7/1 and working out well leading up to the race. At 20/1, he might be worth a few bucks.

I will bet $500 on Ace High Hand at 2/1 or more. But if he's bet to 9/5 or less I'll forget Ace High Hand and put $300 on Bigum instead at 5/2 or higher. Also, I'm putting $250 on #7 Rare Chant and $50 on #2 Larrylarrylarry.

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