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Wednesday, July 2, 2008

Race 3 Hollywood -- 2yos -- 40K -- 5.5Fs

Contenders -- Morning Line

#4 Kitty Kat Queen--20/1
#6 Stormy Inferno--3/1
#7 Lady Schnapps--9/2
#8 Lovely Lolly--12/1
#10 Daniella Roth--6/1
#11 Closing Steps--5/1
#14 Sprig of Acacia--12/1

Seven of 11 of these runners are making their second lifetime start and three are going for the first time. Several of these horses ran with no early speed and no rally last time. I quickly threw out #3 Royal Orchid, #5 Octoberfest and #12 Monica's Edge because they will need dramatic improvement that I can't predict.

Three fillies flashed the type of early speed last time that can get them to the lead today. Stormy Inferno, #6, might be the quickest as that filly was four wide on the turn while showing speed versus maiden special weights. Also, #14 Sprig of Acacia is expected to be fast early and #7 Lady Schnapps won't be far behind.

Trainer John Sadler has #11 Closing Steps who was 70/1 last time and doesn't look like much in the racing form. But she's dropping from maiden special weight and will likely win the race if the first timers don't run and the speed is weak.

Of the first-time starters, #8 Lovely Lolly is owned by Meadowbrook Farms, which has won with three of their last 10 first timers. That horse and the other firsters -- #4Kitty Kat Queen and #10 Daniella Roth -- are decent bets only at 10/1 to 19/1.

On the site, I will bet $200 on #6 Stormy Inferno at 5/2 or more, and $100 to win on #4 Kitty Kat Queen, #8 Lovely Lolly and #10 Daniella Roth, only between the odds of 10/1 to 19/1.

If the first timers do not fall into the odds range and I can't bet them, then I will also bet $200 on #11 Closing Steps at 9/2 or more.

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