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Sunday, July 20, 2008

Race 4 Del Mar -- 5.5Fs -- MSW

Contenders--morning line

#2 Stardom Bound--3/1
#3 Rising Honour--12/1
#4 Oro Blanco--20/1
#5 Irish Gypsy--4/1
#6 Bujumbura--12/1
#7 Lippy Rules--5/1
#8 Madeline Ruby--20/1
#9 Kinesiology--12/1
#10 Montana Fields--7/2

Seven first time starters go in this one and am going to have to play the board. I like these horses at 7/2 to 19/1 -- #2 Stardom Bound, #3 Rising Honour, #9 Kinesiology, #10 Montana Fields. These are good from 10/1 to 19/1 #4 Oro Blanco, #6 Bujumbura and #8 Madeline Ruby. Bob Baffert's second timer #5 Irish Gypsy might win and spoil the party, but I have to bet against her because there is too much opportunity in this race for a big price. The speed of the horses who have run before appears to be #7 Lippy Rules.


I will put $350 on #9 Kinesiology at 10/1-19/1 and $200 #6 Bujumbura and #8 Madeline Ruby if they are 10/1 to 19/1. Any other first timer that is 10/1 to 19/1, I will bet $150 on. If I only have three plays in that range or fewer then I'll put $250 on #7 Lippy Rules, at 5/1, but if she's less than that I'll forget about Lippy Rules and bet $300 on the longest of the first timers who are less than 10/1 among #2, #3, #9 and #10.

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