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Saturday, August 2, 2008

Race 7 Del Mar -- MSW -- 5.5Fs

Contenders--morning line

#2 Launch the Bull--10/1
#3 Believe in Hope--12/1
#4 Azooz--20/1
#1 Gato Go Win--6/1
#5 Crazy Cash--20/1
#6 Fiery Rebel--6/1
#8 Meteore--9/2
#9 Snapshot--7/2
#10 Regal Coyote--20/1
#11 Payment Approved--15/1
#12 El Chubasco--6/1
#13 Oyster Cat--3/1

This 13-horse field has 10 first-time starters and many of them have winning profiles. Over the past few years, I found success spreading out my bets in these races and gambling that a big price shows up. The best bets in races like these have post time odds of 10/1 to 19/1, so that's what I focus on.

If any of these horses are 10/1 to 19/1, I'll bet $250 on them: #3 Believe in Hope, #8 Meteore, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat. Also, I'll bet $200 on #2 Launch the Bull, #4 Azooz and #9 Snapshot, only at 10/1 to 19/1.

If those horses don't fall into the higher odds range, then I will bet $200 on the following horses if they are 5/1 to 9/1: #2 Launch the Bull, #3 Believe in Hope, #6 Fiery Rebel, #8 Meteore, #9 Snapshot, #10 Regal Coyote, #11 Payment Approved, #12 El Chubasco and #13 Oyster Cat.

Finally, I've seen Everest Stables win at 50/1 in the past, so I want $100 on #5 Crazy Cash at 15/1 or more.

Maybe I'll lose all my bets in this race. Maybe I'll hit a 6/1 shot that won't do much more than break me even. But I'm gambling for a payoff of $22 to $38, and if that happens, then I'll do well.

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